In other words, China is looking to reduce the emissions intensity of its electricity generation. Part of this plan includes increasing the role of natural gas in its primary energy consumption because natural gas emits fewer GHGs per unit of energy produced than coal, another major source of Chinese energy. While China’s middle class and industrial capacity expands, that nation has also committed under the Paris Agreement to stop its emissions from rising by 2030. Scenario #1: Global Displacement of Higher Emitting Goods:Įnergy demand in the developing world is increasing, especially in China. These are necessary components of modern life, but they do not currently have viable alternative lower carbon goods that can easily replace them. Natural gas can replace coal-fired electricity fairly easily, but there is no ready alternative to cement, steel, aluminum, or services like marine shipping, aviation, and long-haul transportation. Which option makes the most sense depends on factors like cost, and how easily the product in question can be substituted.
![carbon intensity carbon intensity](https://sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/carbon-forecast.png)
![carbon intensity carbon intensity](https://www.dnv.com/Images/CII-2_770_FINAL_tcm8-202941.png)
These two options are not mutually exclusive. If emissions can be reduced at a faster rate than production increases, then not only will absolute emissions fall, but the economy (in that particular sector) will grow goals (1) and (2) would be met. The second option is where emissions intensity comes into play. The first is that high-emission products or inputs are substituted for lower-emissions ones-in a manner where economic growth resulting from the latter exceeds the offsetting decline in the former. This has helped the economy grow (goal 2) but led to regression on goal 1 (total emissions are up).Īchieving both emissions reductions and economic growth, therefore, requires one of two things to happen. For example, Alberta’s oil sands produce 36% fewer GHG emissions per barrel than they did in in 2000, but the total number of barrels produced has risen even faster. Similarly, it is entirely possible for Canada to make progress on emissions intensity while simultaneously increasing our national absolute emissions. This, of course, would dramatically hurt the wellbeing of millions of Canadians, resulting in a massive failure to achieve goal (2) while succeeding at goal (1) in record time. The fastest way to achieve the first of these goals would be to shut down large, heavy-emitting sectors of the Canadian economy with no regard for the people negatively impacted. Achieving deep domestic absolute emissions reductions, while….How do these two categories of measurement align with progress towards limiting future temperature increases? Do they always work in concert, or do they sometimes clash?īut before addressing these important questions, let’s clarify the difference between absolute emissions and emissions intensity.Ĭanada’s latest climate plan has sets out an ambitious dual goal: However, the fact that there are two common ways to measure GHG emissions reductions-emissions intensity and absolute emissions-is sometimes a cause for confusion. In this context, governments and businesses alike are busy setting policies in place to reduce emissions in those industries. In others, it is because no ready substitutes are presently available. In some cases, this is because it will take time to transition to lower-emission substitutes.
![carbon intensity carbon intensity](https://www.ogci.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pr-ft-image_cit.png)
New green energy sources and clean technologies are emerging and show the potential to replace higher emitting products and industries.Īs this transition plays out, many of Canada’s traditional higher-emitting industries will continue to have a place within the push for a lower carbon economy. An energy transition or evolution is underway in response to the scientific consensus that future global temperature growth needs to be limited. Climate change is one of the greatest global environmental and economic challenges of our time.